Hudson tries to get Braves back on track in Washington

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Atlanta Braves want to hold onto first place in the National League East, they must find a way to consistently beat teams like the Washington Nationals. Lucky for them, that is Tim Hudson's specialty.

Hudson will try to improve on his stellar career record versus Washington this evening and help Atlanta even a three-game series at Nationals Park.

The 35-year-old All-Star threw seven scoreless innings to beat the Nationals the last time he faced them on June 28, upping his career mark against the franchise to 9-1 with an outstanding 1.51 earned run average in 15 starts. He has won eight straight decisions against them since his lone loss on June 5, 2006.

Hudson, though, has been a bit inconsistent himself for the Braves. He has alternated wins and losses over his last eight starts, giving up just one run in the four victories -- including none in the last three -- while yielding 15 runs in the four losses.

The right-hander is coming off a victory over the Padres in which he threw seven scoreless innings on Thursday, improving to 10-5 with a 2.47 ERA on the season.

Hudson will try to get the Braves back on track after they lost last night's opener to Washington, 3-0, even though the Nationals were forced to scratch phenom Stephen Strasburg late due to right shoulder inflammation that leaves the young hurler day-to-day.

Miguel Batista stepped up in an emergency role and threw five scoreless innings, with three Washington relievers combining to hold Atlanta to just two hits the rest of the way. Matt Capps pitched a perfect ninth to earn his 25th save.

"Miguel has been a staff saver for us," Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said. "And [Tuesday] he was more than that. He was outstanding."

Ian Desmond had two hits and drove in two runs for the Nationals, who snapped a three-game slide and won for the third time in 10 games. They have won four of seven overall versus the Braves this year, including three of four at home.

Eric Hinske had two of Atlanta's five hits and Tommy Hanson allowed three runs -- just one earned -- over six innings to take the loss, his team's third in four games to start a nine-game road trip.

"We didn't have many chances," said Braves manager Bobby Cox, whose club will try to avoid dropping three in a row since getting swept by the Chicago White Sox from June 22-24.

The Braves, who have seen their lead over the second-place Philadelphia Phillies fall to 3 1/2 games, were without Nate McLouth after sending the struggling center fielder to Triple-A Gwinnett before the game. McLouth had just six hits in his last 63 at-bats and is hitting .168 with three homers and 14 RBI on the year.

The Nationals will turn tonight to Livan Hernandez, who snapped a five-start winless drought (0-2) with a victory in Cincinnati on Thursday.

The 35-year-old righty picked up his first win since June 21 after allowing a run on seven hits in a complete-game effort, his second of the season and 49th of his career. He didn't walk a batter and struck out five.

Hernandez improved to 7-6 with a 3.12 ERA this year and is 6-15 with a 5.16 ERA in his career versus the Braves, whom he beat on May 4 after giving up just two runs -- one earned -- over 5 1/3 frames.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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