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01/06/2009 - University Park, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 14th-ranked Purdue Boilermakers will try to avoid an 0-2 start to Big Ten play tonight, as they square off against the Penn State Nittany Lions at the Bryce Jordan Center.
The Boilermakers kicked off their Big Ten slate a week ago, dropping a 71-67 overtime decision to Illinois. It was the second overtime loss this season for Purdue, which fell to 0-5 in such games under head coach Matt Painter. With the setback, the Boilermakers saw their six-game win streak come to an end, as they dipped to 11-3 on the season.
As for PSU, it too comes into the contest on a low note, falling 65-61 at Wisconsin on Saturday. The loss snapped the team's five-game win streak and dropped it to 12-3 overall and a level 1-1 in league play. The Lions, who are 2-3 in their last five meetings against ranked teams, now return back home, where they have go a solid 9-1, including five straight wins.
The head-to-head to series, though, is led by Purdue, which holds a 20-9 advantage over PSU and has won the last four meetings.
The Boilermakers have really clamped down on defense this season, forcing 18.0 turnovers per game and holding foes to a mere 35.8 percent shooting from the floor. E'Twaun Moore has made his presence felt at both ends of the floor and he leads Purdue in scoring (14.6 ppg), to go with 21 steals. Robbie Hummel turns in 13.8 ppg and a team-high 8.1 rpg for Purdue, while JaJuan Johnson adds 12.6 ppg and 5.5 rpg to the mix. In the team's last game, Johnson recorded a double-double with 16 points and 15 rebounds, but it wasn't enough for Purdue in an overtime loss to Illinois. Moore logged a team-high 17 points, and Hummel snared 11 caroms in the setback. The Boilermakers did themselves in with poor shooting, connecting only 38.1 percent from the floor, 4-of-16 from long range and 15-of-27 at the foul line.
The Lions are shooting a solid 39.8 percent from three-point range for an average of 71.7 ppg, and they are also crashing the boards following any missed shots, outrebounding foes by 6.1 rpg. Talor Battle, a 42.6 percent shooter from long distance, has been outstanding for PSU and he leads the team in scoring (18.7 ppg), assists (5.1 apg) and steals (22). Stanley Pringle has provided a nice complement to him with 14.9 ppg, 3.3 apg and 19 steals, while Jamelle Cornley contributes 14.5 ppg and a team-high 7.1 rpg. On Saturday, Pringle poured in a career-high 26 points and doled out five assists, but the Lions just didn't have enough to upend Wisconsin. Cornley also had a big game with 20 points and seven rebounds, but Battle was held to only six points in the setback. Wisconsin held a 12-8 edge in free-throw points and a 26-16 advantage in points in the paint and that was good enough to hand PSU the loss.
<< No. 12 Clemson puts perfect mark on line against Alabama
Clemson, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 12th-ranked and still undefeated Clemson
Tigers will host the surging Alabama Crimson Tide tonight in a non-conference
tilt.
Alabama has won its last five games to move to 10-3 overall, and the most
recent
<< No. 18 Villanova visits Seton Hall in Big East action
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th-ranked Villanova Wildcats hit the road
for a Big East Conference clash with the Seton Hall Pirates.
Villanova carried a four-game winning streak into its league opener against
Marquette last Thursday, a
<< Surging Spartans host struggling Buckeyes
East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Big Ten foes will collide in East Lansing
tonight, as the eighth-ranked Michigan State Spartans attempt to hold off the
Ohio State Buckeyes.
After opening the season with nine consecutive victories, Ohio S
<< Azarenka, Bartoli reach Brisbane quarters
Brisbane, Australia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Last year's runner-up Victoria
Azarenka and former Wimbledon finalist Marion Bartoli highlighted Tuesday's
second-round winners at the $220,000 Brisbane International, a season-
opening
Ball State and Tulsa square off in GMAC Bowl >>
Mobile, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ball State Cardinals seek their first-ever
postseason victory when they take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the 10th
annual GMAC Bowl at the Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.
This will be the sevent
Knicks open road trip in Oklahoma City vs. Thunder >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Knicks try to build off their biggest win of
the season this evening when they open a four-game road trip against the
woeful Oklahoma City Thunder at the Ford Center.
On Sunday, New York got a career-high 31 p
Magic host Wizards at Amway Arena >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Wizards hope to string back-to-back wins
together over two of the NBA's elite teams this evening when they visit the
Orlando Magic at Amway Arena.
Washington snapped a two-game losing streak against the Cent
Rockets aim to snap road skid in Philly vs. Sixers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Rockets try to avoid their fifth straight road
loss this evening when they continue a five-game road trip in Philadelphia
against the 76ers at the Wachovia Center.
Houston has dropped the first two games of thi
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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